Bloomberg Businessweek Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - April 11th, 2025
17 snips
Apr 11, 2025 Guest
Kate Crater
Guest
Paul Rice
Guest
Daniel Lurie
Guest
Mike Siegel
Guest
Swamy Kotagiri
Guest
Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Investment Strategist at BCA Research, discusses the ripple effects of U.S. tariffs on market volatility and recession fears. Swami Kotagiri, CEO of Magna International, delves into the automotive industry's response to economic challenges, particularly concerning reshoring and supply chain logistics. Mayor Daniel Lurie shares insights on revitalizing San Francisco's tech scene, while Paul Rice advocates for fair trade practices. Kate Crater highlights New York's culinary renaissance, showcasing innovative dining trends as the city recovers post-pandemic.
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Recession Not Fully Priced In
- The stock market hasn't fully priced in a potential recession, with many cyclical companies still showing year-to-date gains.
- Peter Berezin's S&P 500 target of 4450 assumes a P/E ratio drop to 18 and a 10% earnings decline, which isn't unreasonable given historical data.
Weakening Dollar: A Warning Sign
- The weakening dollar is concerning because it's typically a risk-off currency, suggesting investors are losing confidence in U.S. financial markets.
- This weakening could lead to a lower trade deficit, but also a stock market decline and potential financial crisis.
Too Late to Avoid Recession
- It's too late to avoid a recession due to the trade war escalation and weak economic conditions going into it.
- Trump is unlikely to reverse course on tariffs, as protectionism has been a long-standing goal, and retaliation is politically popular.