Bulls Rule in November, Black Friday Is Here, FTC vs. Microsoft 11/29/24
Nov 29, 2024
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November wraps up with a bullish stock market, sparking predictions for 2025. Live mall reports highlight shopping habits this Black Friday, showcasing Apple and Amazon's holiday strategies. The FTC's antitrust probe into Microsoft raises eyebrows, while President-elect Trump's tariff threats stir reactions. Chip equipment makers enjoy a rally as tech giants like Google face challenges. Small businesses contend with inflation during the crucial shopping season, showcasing the shifting economic landscape.
A bullish trend in the stock market signals potential continued growth into 2025, supported by decreasing bond yields and strong consumer spending.
The FTC's antitrust investigation of Microsoft highlights ongoing regulatory challenges facing big tech, impacting perceptions of their market competitiveness.
Deep dives
The Financial Landscape and Market Trends
The current financial landscape is characterized by a robust stock market, with the S&P index on track for its best month since February, rising nearly 5%. Consumer discretionary stocks have shown impressive growth, up about 25% year-to-date, illustrating a broad-based market rally that includes small-cap stocks as well. Notably, bond yields have decreased significantly, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding the economic outlook, particularly following the election. Analysts suggest that this environment could further boost bank profitability as the Federal Reserve navigates interest rates, with capital markets activity expected to rise.
Retailers and Black Friday Insights
Black Friday sales are projected to see a record participation, with 72% of Americans intending to shop in some capacity. Digital sales on Thanksgiving Day have already surpassed $6.1 billion, marking an almost 9% increase year-over-year, indicating a shift towards online shopping. Retailers are offering substantial discounts, particularly on toys and electronics, with some experiencing discounts of up to 27%. Despite a slight overall decrease in foot traffic compared to last year, the demand for in-store shopping remains high as consumers seek out traditional doorbuster deals.
Implications of Antitrust Actions on Microsoft
Microsoft is currently under a broad antitrust investigation by the FTC, focusing on its cloud computing services and product bundling strategies. This probe is reminiscent of previous scrutiny the company faced over two decades ago, raising questions about its potential impact on the company's operations. Analysts speculate that the investigation may not significantly result in regulatory changes under the incoming administration, indicating a trend toward a more lenient approach to corporate mergers and acquisitions. The outcome of this scrutiny remains uncertain, but it reflects ongoing tensions between big tech and regulatory bodies regarding market competitiveness.
Future of Tech Giants: Amazon and Apple
Amazon's and Apple's trajectories are under close observation as the holiday season approaches, with analysts rating both companies as favorable investments despite varying market performances. While Amazon continues to thrive due to margin expansion and a robust advertising strategy, it faces pressure from rising competition in the e-commerce space. Conversely, Apple's growth is seen as dependent on the rollout of AI features in its products, anticipated to generate increased consumer interest moving into next year. Both companies remain integral to the tech sector, with expectations of growth linked to innovation and adapting to market demands.
On the last trading day of November, Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Sara Eisen discussed the markets wrapping up a bullish month for stocks. Can the upward momentum continue into 2025? Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni joined the conversation. Black Friday also in the spotlight: A live report from a mall on the shopping action, how Apple and Amazon are positioned for the holidays, plus auto dealerships' push to lure car buyers. Also in focus: The FTC opens a broad antitrust probe into Microsoft, More reaction to President-elect Trump's tariff threats, why chip equipment makers are in rally mode.