FiveThirtyEight Politics Weighting For Election Day
Oct 14, 2024
Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst at 538, and Ruth Egelnik, polling editor for The New York Times, delve into the hotly contested presidential race. They discuss the nuances of polling methodologies and the challenges of accurately gauging Trump’s voter base in the current polarized climate. Insights include the evolving demographics of the Democratic Party and the significance of state-level polling. The conversation also touches on how recent hurricanes influence voter sentiment and the effectiveness of campaign events on voter behavior.
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Voting During Sandy
- Galen Druke reminisced about voting during Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
- He voted in an elementary school behind Louis C.K. and his daughters.
A Close Race
- The 2024 presidential race is exceptionally close, with polls showing a virtual tie in battleground states.
- This differs from previous close elections where pre-election polls indicated larger leads.
Focus on Battleground States
- Pollsters are focusing heavily on battleground states due to the Electoral College's importance.
- Increased state-level polling may contribute to the perceived closeness of the race.