What we’re hearing from some of the world’s largest investors now
Sep 15, 2023
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Oscar Ostund, global head of content strategy, market analytics & data science for Marquee in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, discusses institutional investors' expectations of a soft landing in the US despite inflation worries. Also covers investors' sentiments on different asset classes, changing sentiment towards the economic outlook for China and Europe, and the outlook for global currencies and the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Investors anticipate a decoupling between the US, Europe, and China with a soft landing expected in the US but concerns about slowdown in China and Europe
Institutional investors remain bullish on fixed income but have mixed views on equities based on outlook for US economy and equity valuations
Deep dives
Decoupling between US, Europe, and China
The latest Marquis Quick poll reveals that institutional investors are anticipating a decoupling between the US, Europe, and China. While the consensus in the US is that a soft landing is expected, with a drop in inflation and a resilient US consumer, investors are starting to internalize the slowdown in China and Europe. However, there are concerns that the market may have become too complacent, setting a high bar for data in the US. In Europe, there are challenges with sticky inflation and a slowing German economy, while China faces structural readjustments and macroeconomic policy challenges.
Bullish sentiment in fixed income, mixed views on equities
The Marquis Quick poll highlights that institutional investors remain bullish on the fixed income complex, despite a big move in duration and long-term rates. However, there is disagreement on the direction of equities, with sentiment heavily influenced by the outlook for the US economy and equity valuations. Some believe in a cycle extension with a soft landing, while others predict a potential soft patch and more aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. The recent CPI numbers provided mixed evidence for these views, with inflation data being firmer than expected, but key categories suggesting a potential abatement of inflation.
Why are investors increasingly expecting a soft landing as inflation worries persist? Oscar Ostlund, global head of content strategy, market analytics & data science for Marquee in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, discusses the takeaways from the latest QuickPoll survey of 1,000 institutional investors.