Battleground 363. Oreshnik Over Lviv: Winter Strikes and the Shadow Fleet
Jan 16, 2026
As winter sets in with temperatures hitting -14°C, Russia ramps up missile strikes on Ukraine, including a notable attack near Lviv. The podcast explores the rising maritime tensions, highlighting the seizure of a Russian tanker and drone strikes on Black Sea vessels. Discussions also cover a €90bn support package from the EU amid debates between France and Germany, and Estonia's bold ban on ex-Russian soldiers. Additionally, insights on US engagement, proposed recovery plans for Ukraine, and theories surrounding Putin's assassination are on the table.
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Escalation Near NATO Borders
- Russia intensified strikes on Ukraine's energy and military-support infrastructure, including a rare Oreshnik missile hitting Lviv near Poland.
- Roger Morehouse frames this as escalation and Russia using false-flag narratives to justify attacks and pressure Europe.
Maritime Campaign Targets Shadow Fleet
- The shadow fleet remains a focal point with both captures and Ukrainian drone attacks on tankers off Novorossiysk.
- Saul David highlights growing maritime targeting and potential British special forces interdictions in Atlantic waters.
EU Support With Procurement Compromise
- The EU agreed a €90bn support package for Ukraine with an EU-first procurement preference but no hard restriction.
- Roger Morehouse describes the compromise as balancing French protectionism and German openness to outside sourcing.
