Many Happy Returns
Soft Landings Are Hard: How Has the US Economy Achieved the Impossible?
Dec 27, 2023
Discussion on the achievement of a soft landing in the American economy, without higher unemployment or a recession. Exploring the challenges faced during the soft landing, including the bankruptcy of Orange County. Theories on the US economy's inflation spike and the risks to the economy. Challenges of predicting human behavior and the complexity of economic modeling.
38:59
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Quick takeaways
- The US achieved a soft landing by allowing the market to resolve supply chain disruptions and oil price fluctuations without significant intervention from the Federal Reserve.
- The Fed's communication and management of market expectations played a crucial role in bringing down inflation without resorting to extremely high interest rates.
Deep dives
Theory 1: Long Transitory
One theory suggests that the inflation spike experienced was due to supply chain disruptions and a rapid rise in oil prices, which eventually resolved themselves in 2023. According to this theory, the market fixed the problem, and the Federal Reserve didn't need to take significant action.
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