Here & Now Anytime Why Trump's blockade might wreck Venezuelan economy but not topple Maduro
Dec 17, 2025
Francisco J. Monaldi, an energy policy expert at Rice University, discusses Trump's blockade on Venezuelan oil, highlighting its potential to wreak havoc on the economy, devalue currency, and escalate inflation. He questions whether such sanctions can topple Maduro, noting the regime's past resilience. Claire Lai, daughter of pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai, shares heartfelt insights on her father's life sentence and ongoing advocacy for his release, offering a personal glimpse into their family's battle against repression.
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Blockade's Unprecedented Economic Risk
- A U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil is almost unprecedented and would target many unregistered 'shadow fleet' tankers.
- Francisco Monaldi warns strict enforcement could sharply cut foreign exchange, devalue the currency, and spike inflation.
Sanctions Hit Part Of The Fleet
- Current U.S. sanctions only cover a share of tankers and recently targeted six vessels linked to Venezuelan oil.
- Monaldi notes the shadow fleet often flies no flag and can impersonate other ships, complicating enforcement.
Oil Drives Venezuela's Economy
- Venezuela depends on oil for roughly 80–90% of its foreign currency earnings.
- Monaldi says large export disruptions would cause massive currency devaluation, rising inflation, and a deep recession if prolonged.