The Exchange The Health of Health Insurers, 'Dumb Money' Durability, and Altman's Tech Job Warning 1/27/26
Jan 27, 2026
Julia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy Perspectives and former Fed-focused economist, offers concise macro and rate outlooks. Discussion covers pressure on health insurers from a new Medicare Advantage proposal. Conversation also explores how meme trading reshaped retail flows since GameStop. They examine signs from OpenAI's hiring pause and wider implications for tech labor.
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Sentiment vs. Spending Shapes Fed View
- Consumer confidence fell to an 11-year low while GDP and other data show mixed strength, complicating the Fed's decisions.
- Julia Coronado and Steve Leisman stress the Fed will follow spending and labor data more than sentiment surveys.
Labor Drift Makes Cuts Likely
- Forecasts now incorporate a modest upward drift in unemployment, supporting expectations for one or two rate cuts this year.
- Julia Coronado ties potential cuts to labor market softening rather than purely political influence.
Yields And Dollar Could Reprice Tech
- Citi projects room for two to three cuts but flags dollar weakness and 10-year yields as risks to valuation.
- Scott Kronert sees the AI-led earnings backdrop as partly disinflationary and supportive of high valuations if yields fall.