The Compound and Friends Ian Bremmer on What Investors Should Know About Ukraine and Russia
Feb 28, 2022
Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group and a renowned expert on Eastern Europe, joins the hosts for a deep dive into the implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He discusses the severe economic and humanitarian fallout, exploring potential refugee crises and geopolitical tensions that could spark a new cold war. The conversation highlights how sanctions affect Russia and global markets, while also examining Europe's energy challenges and inflation. Bremmer provides insightful perspectives on the complex interplay of military actions and economic realities.
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Putin's Negotiation Stance
- Putin likely won't negotiate, even with sanctions, because Ukraine matters more to him than to the US.
- The US prioritized avoiding direct conflict, even refusing troop deployment for evacuations.
Sanctions' True Aim
- Sanctions aim to cripple Russia, like those against Iran, pushing for capitulation or regime erosion.
- This economic war could cause a 3-5% GDP contraction, even without Russian retaliation.
Putin's Vulnerability
- Putin faces unprecedented pressure, increasing the possibility of a palace coup, though not imminent.
- Growing internal dissent and potential military demoralization could further destabilize his position.
