Democrats and Republicans are divided over foreign policy, with conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. The podcast discusses how these divisions may impact the upcoming presidential election. They also analyze the South Carolina primary race and debate the rankings of American presidents by political scientists.
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Quick takeaways
Republicans show declining support for Ukraine aid while Democrats demonstrate higher backing.
Democrats are divided on Israeli-Palestinian conflict, unlike Republicans who maintain solidarity with Israel.
Deep dives
Public Opinion Landscape on Ukraine Assistance
Americans show a decline in Republican support for military and economic assistance to Ukraine, with Democrats displaying higher support. Republicans are divided on intervention in world affairs, leaning toward staying out. A shift in party attitudes reflects a decrease in Republican support for Ukraine aid since 2022, influenced by views on the political agenda priorities.
Democratic Party Vulnerabilities on Israel-Palestine Conflict
Biden faces challenges within his party with divisions over the United States' stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Republicans remain united in support for Israel, Democrats show a split, especially among younger voters and African Americans. The vulnerability lies in balancing moderate and progressive views within the party, affecting Biden's approach to the conflict.
Pressure on Biden's Foreign Policy Approach
Biden's responsiveness to shifting political dynamics is evident in executive actions like levying sanctions on West Bank settlers and pushing for a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict. The scrutiny extends to tensions within the Republican party over Ukraine, where Trump's stance is divergent from majority public opinion. Trump's influence on Republican sentiment reflects a lukewarm attitude towards NATO and Russia.
Influence of Elite Voices on Public Opinion
Elite voices, particularly that of Donald Trump, shape public opinion within the Republican party on foreign policy issues like Ukraine. Trump's hardline stance influences party members' views, contributing to a decline in support for US involvement in Ukraine among Republicans. The sway of political elites on party opinion underscores the evolving landscape of foreign policy debates.
Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November?
On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew invites Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to break down how the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have divided the parties. They also preview the upcoming South Carolina primary race, and ask whether a recent poll of political scientists intending to create a ranking of American presidents was a good or bad use of polling.