Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Overvalued Bull Markets Like Now "Do Not End Well" | New Harbor Financial

Sep 25, 2025
Join John Lodra and Mike Preston, lead partners at New Harbor Financial, as they dive into the current market's nosebleed valuations amidst Fed rate cuts. They debate whether to ride the momentum wave or play it safe by reducing risk. The duo identifies key indicators of potential market changes and reflects on today's tech-driven speculation echoing the 2000 bubble. Additionally, they share practical strategies for managing gains in precious metals, along with crucial year-end financial moves every investor should consider.
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INSIGHT

Valuations Predict Poor Long-Term Returns

  • Extreme valuations rarely matter short-term but dominate long-term expected returns.
  • John Lodra highlights valuation metrics predicting poor decade-long outcomes from current levels.
ADVICE

Trim Equities When Valuations Are Extremes

  • Reduce equity exposure when valuations are extreme and you don't need market risk.
  • New Harbor runs about 45% equities and uses tactical hedges and trims to manage risk.
INSIGHT

Technicals Can Mask Underlying Weakness

  • Technicals still support further gains even as valuations are extreme.
  • Watch breadth and momentum indicators for early signs of a market top.
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