Bloomberg Talks
JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly Talks Inflation
Apr 10, 2025
David Kelly warns that we're in 'the calm before the inflation storm,' expecting an economic slowdown ahead. He notes softness in the travel industry, which may worsen this year. The discussion dives into the relationship between stagnation and inflation, revealing that inflation can precede an economic downturn. Factors like declining labor supply and fiscal issues are explored, alongside their potential implications for U.S. bonds and long-term inflation trends.
03:14
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Quick takeaways
- David Kelly warns of an impending economic slowdown, indicating that softness in the travel industry is expected to intensify this year.
- Investment strategies should focus on U.S. Treasuries as bonds provide security amid economic uncertainty, despite inflation pressures.
Deep dives
Navigating Economic Sentiments
The current economic landscape shows signs of both inflation and stagnation, with experts highlighting a potential slowdown ahead. Key indicators such as the decline in travel prices hint at softness in the travel industry, which may worsen over time. This situation suggests that although inflation pressures exist, particularly due to tariffs affecting supply chains, the dominant concern is a sluggish economy rather than soaring prices. The commentary underlines that in the absence of significant fiscal stimulus, recession risk may overshadow inflation concerns moving forward.
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