Squaring the Circle Rethinking the Threat with Dan Grazier, The Stimson Center
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Oct 18, 2025 
Dan Grazier, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and former Marine, shares insights from his report, 'Rethinking the Threat,' arguing that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely. He explains how his on-the-ground research and observations led to this conclusion. Discussions include the defense industry's role in threat inflation, Taiwan's defensive strategies, and the operational challenges of an invasion. Grazier also highlights China's internal vulnerabilities and advocates for a strategic reappraisal in the U.S. to ensure effective defense.
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Amphibious Invasion Is Exceptionally Hard
- Amphibious invasions are the most complex military operations and differ drastically from land wars like Russia‑Ukraine.
- Taiwan's terrain and need for heavy mechanized operations make a successful large‑scale invasion highly unlikely.
Scrutinize Strategic Assumptions
- Question prevailing strategic premises instead of accepting them uncritically.
- Scrutinize scenarios driving policy because conventional wisdom can misdirect resources.
Ground Visit Changed His View
- Dan Grazier read widely, visited Taiwan twice, and used on‑the‑ground observation to test his assumptions.
- Seeing Taiwan's coastal plain and mountains convinced him the terrain compounds invasion difficulty.
