Bloomberg Businessweek Oil Traders Weigh Surplus, Geopolitical Risks to Start 2026
5 snips
Jan 5, 2026 Kevin Crowley, Bloomberg's senior U.S. oil reporter, delves into the intricacies of the oil market as 2026 kicks off. He discusses the staggering 3.8 million b/d oversupply driven by non-OPEC growth, alongside the cautious stance of OPEC+ amidst geopolitical tensions. Tim Moore joins to share insights on clean energy prospects, including key players like Bloom Energy and Sunrun. They explore whether $60 is a sustainable price for U.S. shale drilling and highlight the surprising energy independence of the U.S. due to record production.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Oversupply Will Define Early 2026
- Global oil faces a large oversupply in early 2026 driven by non-OPEC growth and resilient U.S. shale.
- Markets expect the surplus to be worked through by mid-year, which could support higher prices later.
Position For OPEC+ Caution
- Expect OPEC+ caution and likely pause on quota increases for early 2026 when they vote.
- Position for a tighter price band (low $60s) rather than large spikes by favoring disciplined producers.
Capital Discipline Meets Shale Efficiency
- Major oil companies maintain capital discipline, prioritizing shareholder returns over aggressive spending.
- U.S. shale keeps cutting costs and raising productivity, allowing growth even at ~$60 per barrel.