Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast Is The GCAP Fighter The F-35's International Successor?
Jan 9, 2026
In this engaging conversation, Richard Aboulafia, Managing Director of Aerodynamic Advisory and aerospace industry analyst, dives into the competitive landscape of next-generation fighter programs like GCAP and FCAS. He highlights how GCAP’s strategic partnerships and favorable geopolitical circumstances position it for success. The discussion also touches on the limitations of U.S. fighters in the global market and the potential for Australia to favor GCAP due to collaborative needs. As Richard outlines, 2026 could be a pivotal year for these programs.
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GCAP Poised As Global Successor
- GCAP benefits from harmonized resources and partners and is well positioned to succeed internationally.
- Richard Aboulafia argues GCAP may inherit export demand as U.S. alliance ties weaken and America prioritizes non-export high-end systems.
U.S. High-End Focus Limits Export Reach
- U.S. future fighters (F-47/F-AXX) focus on very high-end, homeland defense capabilities and are unlikely wide-export winners.
- That leaves a global export gap for partners seeking affordable, widely-exportable sixth-gen options.
Alliances Are Fragile Strategic Assets
- Alliance networks and soft power take decades to build and can be damaged quickly by political shifts.
- Aboulafia warns shrinking trust in U.S. partners can accelerate moves toward alternatives like GCAP.