S1E111: Why Myanmar’s crisis scuppers India’s Act East Policy

Jul 25, 2024

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Hear why this policy is in jeopardy on several levels, including the risk of being outmanoeuvred and encircled by China in its near east.

Synopsis: Every fourth Friday of the month, The Straits Times' global contributor Nirmal Ghosh shines a light on Asian perspectives of global and Asian issues with expert guests.

It may have been called a “forgotten” war - but the civil war in Myanmar triggered by the military’s February 2021 coup d’etat, has grave implications for India’s national security, and plans for connectivity to South-east Asia.

Also, as it remains to be seen where the cards eventually fall, it has also heightened New Delhi’s concerns over potential encirclement by China.

India’s immediate concern is spillover of the conflict into its own volatile north-east, where the state of Manipur - which borders Myanmar - has been witnessing ethnic violence. More broadly, the crisis also threatens India’s Act East policy, and raises concerns in New Delhi as China extends its influence in Myanmar and also in Bangladesh.

Though Bangladesh’s current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is pro-India, the country’s army is supplied mostly with Chinese weapons, and there is latent resentment against India.

But India’s options are limited, as guest experts Dr Aparna Pande and Dr Avinash Paliwal tell Asian Insider host Nirmal Ghosh.

Dr Paliwal lectures in diplomacy and public policy at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and has just published his book - India's Near East. Dr Pande is a research fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC and has written books on Indian foreign policy.

Highlights (click/tap above):

3:50 India's big investment in building connectivity through Myanmar

4:51 China's interests in Myanmar's civil and military domains concern India deeply

13:00 All of India's neighbours are its first layer of security

20:18 An asymmetric connectivity benefitting India, but not for Bangladesh

21:49 Understanding India's regional geopolitics through domestic political lens

25:36 India's challenge is broadly with all of its neighbours

Follow Nirmal Ghosh on X: https://str.sg/JD7r

Read Nirmal Ghosh's articles: https://str.sg/JbxG

Produced by: Nirmal Ghosh (nirmal@sph.com.sg) and Fa’izah Sani

Edited by: Fa’izah Sani

Follow Asian Insider with Nirmal Ghosh every fourth Friday of the month here: