Economist and professor Branko Milanovic discusses the history and trajectory of global inequality, focusing on his famous 'Elephant Curve' graph. They also delve into globalization's impact on geopolitics and power balance, shifts in globalization and its effects on Western middle classes, and the implications of Western political concern with democracy as a form of imperialism.
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Quick takeaways
Global income growth is not as unequally distributed as previously thought, challenging preconceptions about the negative impact of globalization on Western working classes.
Attempting to counter the threat posed by Donald Trump and his brand of populism through judicial means may not be effective, and building a political coalition that appeals to those who reject Trump's politics is considered a more effective strategy.
The rise of Asia, particularly China, challenges Western dominance and highlights the potential for a more balanced distribution of power, with both positive implications for improved living standards and negative implications due to China's authoritarian ruling.
Deep dives
The Supreme Court of Colorado disqualifies Donald Trump from running for the 2024 presidential election
The Supreme Court of the State of Colorado has disqualified Donald Trump from running for the 2024 presidential election, removing his name from the primary ballots in the state. This ruling by the seven out of seven Democratic-dominated judges has caused concern about the legitimacy of the decision and the potential for further polarization. While Trump is considered a threat to democratic institutions, some argue that disqualifying him through legal means may not effectively contain this threat. There are concerns that even if Trump is removed from the ballots, someone like Donald Trump Jr. could take his place, leading to more mistrust and polarization among Americans.
Addressing the threat of Donald Trump requires building a political coalition
Attempting to counter the threat posed by Donald Trump and his brand of populism through judicial means may not be effective. Historically, using constitutional maneuvers or court judgments to contain populist movements has often failed and even strengthened the perception of populists as martyrs. Disqualifying Trump would not necessarily remove the threat, as he could be replaced by someone else from his camp or result in Republican-controlled legislatures removing Democratic candidates from presidential ballots. Building a political coalition that appeals to those who reject Trump's politics is considered a more effective strategy.
Globalization, inequality, and the changing geopolitical landscape
The economist Bronco Milanovic and the podcast host discuss the implications of globalization, economic inequality, and geopolitical power shifts. Milanovic's famous 'elephant curve' graph showcased how globalization affected different income groups globally. The preconceptions about the negative impact of globalization on Western working classes were challenged, as income gains were more evenly distributed between 2008 and 2018. However, the situation has also led to concerns over geopolitical power dynamics, particularly the rise of countries like China, leading to ideological shifts and potential conflicts between different systems of governance. The need for mutual respect, non-interference, and dialogue between states is emphasized to avoid ideological imposition and maintain a complex global order.
The Balance of Economic Power is Shifting: Asia's Rise and Western Decline
Asia's economic growth has been exceptional, leading to a shifting balance of power in the global economy. While Western countries have historically held power through economic dominance, the rise of Asia challenges this status quo. The increasing economic might of Asian countries, particularly China, highlights the potential for a more balanced distribution of power. This shift has both positive and negative implications. On one hand, billions of people in Asia are experiencing improved living standards. On the other hand, concerns arise due to China's authoritarian Communist Party ruling the country. The possibility of a more equal distribution of economic output globally may contribute to a more peaceful environment.
Reconsidering Western Dominance and Liberalism
There is a critical evaluation of Western dominance in international affairs and the project of liberalism. The argument suggests that Western political concern with democracy can sometimes be a form of imperialism, projecting a particular view of political systems onto others. This critique emphasizes the need for accepting legitimacy of different political systems around the world, including non-democratic regimes. The recognition of diverse forms of governance, without imposing Western ideals, can lead to a more peaceful and cooperative international system. The author identifies as a social democrat rather than a liberal, feeling that many self-proclaimed liberals in the US align more with a center-right position. Examples like Willy Brandt and Raymond Aron demonstrate a more nuanced and understanding approach to political adversaries, encouraging a greater willingness to engage in meaningful dialogue.
In this week’s conversation, Yascha Mounk and Branko Milanovic discuss Milanovic’s famous “Elephant Curve” graph and why global income growth is not as unequally distributed as he once thought; how we should think about globalization and its effects on the global balance of power; and why Milanovic does not consider himself a philosophical liberal.
