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The Market Huddle
Predicting Macro Soup (guest: Marko Papic)
May 27, 2022
Marko Papic from ClockTower Group discusses the war in Ukraine, the situation in China, and a trade that smart traders are interested in. The hosts also talk about an Italian beer, pineapple on pizza, an upcoming event in Toronto, and Canadian trivia. They discuss China's shift towards a German model in the tech sector, make predictions and discuss potential market opportunities. They also touch on Marko Papic's journey to joining Clock Tower Research Group, an ongoing dispute over an Arctic island, recent market changes, and skiing trips.
01:55:43
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Quick takeaways
- China prioritizes growth over everything else, focusing on debt control and fiscal conservatism, but needs to address accountability rules for sustained growth.
- The short-term commodity market may experience a tradable counter-trend move with potential oil price decline due to the war in Ukraine losing impact on supply and demand, along with China's economic slowdown.
Deep dives
China's Approach to Geopolitics and Debt
China's geopolitical approach is focused on limiting debt and deleveraging in order to avoid excesses and maintain fiscal conservatism. They prioritize growth over everything else, including zero covid policies. Chinese leaders are concerned about debt levels and the potential for a Japan-like scenario. They are implementing accountability rules for provincial leaders to control debt and prevent future crises. However, this approach has led to a crisis in China, with falling PMIs, rising unemployment, and an economic slowdown. The Chinese government is expected to introduce stimulus measures, but they need to address accountability rules and break the conservative approach to effectively boost growth.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode