The Fed is Cutting Rates. Here's What History Says Happens Next - 193

The Federal Reserve has officially started a rate-cutting cycle, and Chairman Powell has telegraphed that more cuts are likely on the way. For traders, this is a time to be "licking your chops." This episode is all about:

The FED Playbook.

We dive into the historical data to see what has happened in the 11 previous times since 1980 that the Fed has cut rates multiple times in a row. Discover why, in the absence of a major recession, the market has historically seen double-digit gains 12 months later. We'll explore which sectors—from defensive stocks and small caps to banks and homebuilders—tend to perform best during these cycles.

This isn't a guess; it's a playbook based on decades of market history. Is it time to "back up the truck" and load up? Subscribe for more deep dives into the market forces that matter.

Key Takeaways

• The Fed Has Signaled a Cutting Cycle: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has clearly telegraphed that a rate-cutting cycle has begun, with potentially one or two more cuts expected before the end of the year. This removes a significant amount of uncertainty for the market.

• History Shows Strong Market Performance: In the 11 times since 1980 that the Fed has initiated a multi-cut cycle without a recession, the S&P 500 has been up an average of 14.5% twelve months later. The market was also higher, on average, three and six months after the first cut.

• The "Goldilocks" Scenario is Here: The current environment of a stable economy, manageable inflation (around 3%), and a Fed that is actively cutting rates is what many describe as a "Goldilocks" scenario for the stock market.

• Expect Broad Market Leadership: Historically, Fed cutting cycles tend to broaden market leadership beyond just the tech sector. Defensive stocks (like consumer staples) tend to gain early, while cyclicals (like banks, homebuilders, and small caps) often perform better later in the cycle.

• The Playbook Says: Be in the Market: Based on the strong historical precedent, the playbook for this environment is to have exposure to the stock market to capitalize on the expected upward trend. While a 10% pullback is always possible and healthy, fighting the long-term trend in this environment would be a mistake.

"The Fed lowering rates multiple times in succession has happened before. History repeats itself. So what is the playbook? Well, let's take a look at what has happened before."

Timestamped Summary

• (00:52) The Fed's Clear Signal: The episode kicks off with the news that Fed Chairman Powell has clearly telegraphed a rate-cutting cycle, removing market uncertainty.

• (02:30) The Historical Playbook: A deep dive into the data from the last 11 multi-cut cycles since 1980, revealing that the market is up an average of 14.5% a year later when there is no recession.

• (09:27) The "Goldilocks" Scenario: An argument for why the current combination of a stable economy, manageable inflation, and an easing Fed creates a highly favorable "Goldilocks" environment for stocks.

• (12:41) Which Sectors Perform Best?: A look at the historical data on which sectors tend to benefit most during a rate-cutting cycle, including defensive stocks, banks, small caps, and homebuilders.

• (14:30) The Bottom Line: "Back Up the Truck": The host's concluding thought that the historical playbook for this scenario is clear: it's time to have exposure to the market and "load up the truck."

Are you bullish or bearish for the rest of the year? Share your take in the comments. If this episode helped you understand the Fed's impact, share it with a friend who is new to investing.

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