Geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer forecasts conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, concerns over Trump's reelection, improving US-China relations, and the future of AI in 2024.
The recent drone attack in Jordan represents a red line for the Biden administration, leading to potential retaliation and escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Ukraine is likely to face de facto partition in the near future, with the US and its allies working to transition into a defensive posture to ensure Ukraine's survival.
Deep dives
Drone attack in Jordan raises tension in the Middle East
The recent drone attack in Jordan, suspected to be backed by Iran, which resulted in the deaths of three American service members and injured many others, has escalated tensions in the Middle East. There is pressure on the White House to respond to this attack, with some calling for a direct attack on Iran. This attack represents a red line for the Biden administration and has created a nightmare scenario. The US will likely retaliate, potentially with strikes against the groups involved in the attack, as well as Iranian military assets. However, this could further escalate the conflict in the region, with the possibility of a broader Middle East war.
Ukraine is likely to be de facto partitioned
According to Ian Bremmer, Ukraine will face de facto partition in the near future. The US and its allies are working with Ukraine to transition into a defensive posture, recognizing that it is unlikely for Ukraine to regain the territory it has lost to Russia. This outcome is a result of the lack of leadership and early actions by the US and Europe to handle the situation effectively. While it is not an ideal outcome, it may be considered a win in terms of ensuring Ukraine's survival and creating a more positive future trajectory for the country.
Risks of an America at war with itself
Amidst the global events, the risk of America's internal conflict is a significant concern. If Trump were to win the presidential election in 2024, it could lead to the erosion of democracy and the rule of law, as he would prioritize undoing investigations and prosecutions against him. This would fundamentally change the perception of the US as a functional representative democracy. Additionally, the geopolitical environment is more volatile now, with conflicts already ongoing and the US-China relationship more tense. A Trump presidency could exacerbate these conflicts and create a highly destabilizing international order.
The impact of AI in 2024
AI continues to be a game-changer, with its potential to revolutionize every sector of the economy. The application of AI technology can enhance productivity, improve measurements and decision-making, and offer significant benefits. However, there are also risks associated with AI, such as disinformation, misuse for malicious purposes, and unexpected societal changes. While the opportunities outweigh the risks, it is critical to address the negative externalities and ensure responsible development and usage of AI technology.
Geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer joins Ravi Agrawal to forecast the world ahead in 2024. From expanding conflict in the Middle East and a potentially partitioned Ukraine to a more optimistic take on the rise of artificial intelligence, listen in to hear his predictions.