Disruptive Forces in Investing

How the AI Debt Supercycle Is Reshaping Credit Markets

10 snips
Jan 27, 2026
Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger Berman's CIO and Global Head of Fixed Income, outlines the AI-driven surge in bond issuance and its impact on credit markets. He discusses hyperscaler financing, circular financing risks, complex securitization structures, and how AI is being used inside investment teams. The conversation highlights global opportunities and cautious positioning amid rising tail risks and political uncertainty.
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INSIGHT

Macro Outlook: Growth With Tail Risks

  • The U.S. should grow ~2.5% in 2026 with modestly higher unemployment and well-behaved inflation near 2.5%.
  • Ashok Bhatia warns of higher tail risks this year driven by AI and recent policy moves in Washington.
ADVICE

Position Credit Portfolios Conservatively

  • Favor financials and names with minimal downgrade/default risk, while reducing cyclicals and industrial exposure.
  • Diversify across many issuers and increase emerging market exposure to manage elevated tail risks.
INSIGHT

AI Bond Issuance Has Exploded

  • Hyperscaler bond issuance jumped from $30bn/year (2020–24) to $120bn in 2025 and may reach $200–225bn in 2026.
  • The surge reflects the sheer scale of AI investments that exceed internal cash flow for many companies.
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