Dwarkesh Podcast Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise
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Oct 31, 2025 
In a riveting discussion, military historian Sarah Paine delves into how Stalin's machinations significantly hindered China's rise for over a century. She explores the complexities of Russo-Chinese relations, detailing how Soviet interventions delayed China's control over crucial territories like Manchuria. Paine explains the impact of the Sino-Soviet split and draws parallels between historical dynamics and current events, including Chinese support for Russia in Ukraine. Her insights offer a fresh perspective on the geopolitical chessboard of the past and present.
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Russia Systematically Sabotaged China's Recovery
- Russia repeatedly exploited Chinese weakness in the 19th century to extract territory and delay China's recovery.
- These interventions institutionalized a pattern where Russian actions prolonged Chinese turmoil for Russian strategic gain.
Huangpu Schooling That Backfired
- The Soviet Union funded and structured the Huangpu Military Academy that trained both Nationalist and Communist officers.
- Stalin then insisted the Nationalists include Communists, prompting Chiang Kai-shek's later massacre and forcing Mao toward a rural strategy.
Stalin's Ambivalent Help To Mao
- Stalin's late WWII moves took Manchuria's industrial base and Outer Mongolia, weakening China's postwar position.
- He then handed captured equipment to Mao, enabling the Communists' conventional victory while still disadvantaging China economically.
