Dwarkesh Podcast Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise
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Oct 31, 2025 
In a riveting discussion, military historian Sarah Paine delves into how Stalin's machinations significantly hindered China's rise for over a century. She explores the complexities of Russo-Chinese relations, detailing how Soviet interventions delayed China's control over crucial territories like Manchuria. Paine explains the impact of the Sino-Soviet split and draws parallels between historical dynamics and current events, including Chinese support for Russia in Ukraine. Her insights offer a fresh perspective on the geopolitical chessboard of the past and present.
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Why The Soviet Empire Unraveled
- Soviet decline stemmed from prolonged economic underperformance, demographic and leadership issues, and oil-dependence.
- Gorbachev's reforms accelerated the collapse of the imperial structure and the loss of Eastern European control.
Poland's Partitions As A Russian Template
- Paine traces Russia's historic pattern of territorial expansion by annexing neighbors and breaking up states like Poland and the Baltic countries.
- She links these actions to deep-rooted Russian strategic culture and explains why Eastern Europeans distrust Moscow.
Avoid Gorbachev's Mistake
- Prioritize stability and strong central control over political liberalization to avoid Soviet-style collapse.
- Use economic reforms but avoid rapid political opening that could fragment multiethnic states.
