The Indicator from Planet Money We're nearing 'peak population.' These economists are worried
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Jul 1, 2025 The podcast dives into the fascinating contrast between soaring population numbers and declining fertility rates. Experts warn that if this trend continues, we may witness a significant population crash with dire consequences. Key discussions include the implications of such a shift on economic progress and innovation, as well as the societal challenges of family planning and shared parenting. The episode also emphasizes the connection between population dynamics and climate change, urging a nuanced approach to these intertwined issues.
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Global Fertility Below Replacement
- The global fertility rate has declined below replacement level in most countries leading to future population shrinkage.
- Population is projected to peak around 10 billion in 2080 and then gradually drop to 2 billion over 300 years.
More People Boost Prosperity
- More people foster greater idea generation, driving economic progress across wide areas beyond just high-tech.
- Fixed costs mean many public goods and innovations rely on a critical mass to be viable and beneficial.
Vaccine Development Depends on Scale
- Vaccines for common diseases exist because many people are affected and justify investment.
- Rare diseases like sealpox lack vaccines due to too few cases to attract resources.