BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager Russ Koesterich predicts a rate cut by the Fed in June despite a higher CPI report and advises staying long on equities. The discussion also covers the transition of trading at Schwab to Ameritrade, economic data, barbelling the portfolio, and the market sell-off as a buying opportunity.
The Fed is expected to cut rates in June despite a hotter-than-expected January CPI report.
For equity investments, a barbell strategy of investing in mega-cap tech names and higher-quality cyclicals is recommended.
Deep dives
The economy is performing better than expected
Despite some areas of inflation remaining sticky, the broader issue is that inflation is heading lower. The market may have had high expectations for rate cuts in late 2023, but the reality is that the Fed will likely begin cutting rates later this spring or summer. While there may be some volatility and temporary setbacks, the overall narrative remains the same. The stock market is expected to perform well, with the potential for beating earnings estimates.
Investing strategy: Stick to quality stocks
In terms of equity investments, a strategy of barbelling the portfolio is recommended. This means maintaining positions in high-quality mega-cap tech names that benefit from secular trends, as well as investing in higher-quality cyclicals that offer value. Small caps, on the other hand, may be less favorable due to their sensitivity to interest rates. The US is still considered the best market for equity investments, with its resilient economy, strong economic data, and available companies with qualities such as consistency and profitability.
BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager Russ Koesterich discusses his expectation that the Fed will cut rates in June even after a hotter-than-expected January CPI report and says now is the time to stay long equities. He speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.