Where do US-China relations go from here? w/ Jake Werner
Apr 29, 2025
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Jake Werner, a historian of modern China and director at the Quincy Institute, shares insights on the deepening complexities of US-China relations. He discusses the trade war, highlighting why 'decoupling' fails to capture the economic fallout. The conversation turns to military tensions, with a focus on the rising influence of military officials in China and the risks of proxy wars. Werner also explores the historical contexts of liberalism and authoritarianism under Xi Jinping, painting a vivid picture of the geopolitical landscape ahead.
The language surrounding US-China relations often downplays the severity of economic decoupling, masking the potential for destabilization.
Trump's trade policies are influenced by erratic market responses and internal administration conflicts, complicating trade negotiations with China.
The potential for increased military tensions and proxy wars highlights the precarious balance of power in US-China relations, especially around Taiwan.
Deep dives
The Impact of Euphemisms on US-China Relations
Discussions surrounding US-China relations often rely on euphemisms that mask the severity of the conflict. Terms like 'competition', 'decoupling', and 'de-risking' underplay the urgency of a situation where economic ties are being severed, potentially leading to destabilization. The real implications are reflected in the fracturing economic relations that both countries rely on, with the prospect of an abrupt breakdown being particularly alarming. This oversight in language can lead to a misunderstanding of the grave consequences that a rapid decoupling could entail.
Trump's Shifting Rhetoric and Trade Policy
The Trump administration's trade policy is characterized by erratic shifts, with sporadic reductions in tariff rhetoric suggesting market responsiveness. Analysts point to a variety of influences shaping Trump’s approach, including pressures from the stock market and recognition of China's economic resilience. Contrasting viewpoints within his administration, especially between figures like Peter Navarro and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, showcase a struggle between aggressive trade war tactics and the desire for diplomatic negotiations. This internal conflict complicates the prospect of achieving meaningful trade agreements and underscores the precarious state of US-China relations.
Perceptions of Vulnerability in Trade Dynamics
Understanding the vulnerabilities of both nations in the ongoing trade conflict is crucial, with each side holding distinct cards in the high-stakes game. The belief that the US has the upper hand in imposing tariffs may be misguided, as China's ability to bolster domestic demand could mitigate adverse effects from the trade war. Conversely, the US economy might face significant challenges, including shortages and inflation, as it attempts to navigate the fallout. The complex interplay of perceived weakness and strength complicates the economic landscape, leading to unpredictable outcomes.
Future of Global Economic System and Power Dynamics
The breakdown of neoliberal globalization has left both the US and China grappling with insecurity, which has intensified their focus on each other as adversaries. While the Biden administration appears more predictable in its foreign policy compared to Trump, it continues many of the hostile stances initiated earlier. This continuity in adversarial policies raises concerns that escalating tensions may not only affect bilateral relations but could also reshape global alliances and economic frameworks. The urge to reestablish a favorable global order for the US may lead to further constraints being placed on China internationally.
The Risk of Military Escalation and Proxy Conflicts
Increased military confrontations and proxy wars between the US and China pose a significant risk in the current geopolitical landscape. The elevation of military-focused officials within the Chinese Communist Party, coupled with aggressive posturing from US leadership, raises alarms about potential escalations. Areas like Taiwan exemplify the precarious balance of power, fraught with dangers of miscalculation and conflict. The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration further complicates the situation, presenting both opportunities for diplomacy and risks of catastrophic military engagements.
Jake Werner on US-China relations in the context of the trade war. We discussed why Donald Trump has dialled down his rhetoric over tariffs, and why the term "decoupling" hardly captures the severity of what a breakdown of the economic relations between the US and China will look like. We also talked about the prospects of increased military tension, and whether we can expect the development of proxy wars between the two powers as the relationship between the US and China deteriorates further.
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