Politics Theory Other Where do US-China relations go from here? w/ Jake Werner
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Apr 29, 2025 Jake Werner, a historian of modern China and director at the Quincy Institute, shares insights on the deepening complexities of US-China relations. He discusses the trade war, highlighting why 'decoupling' fails to capture the economic fallout. The conversation turns to military tensions, with a focus on the rising influence of military officials in China and the risks of proxy wars. Werner also explores the historical contexts of liberalism and authoritarianism under Xi Jinping, painting a vivid picture of the geopolitical landscape ahead.
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Trump's Trade War Ambivalence
- Trump's reduced tariff rhetoric reflects internal administration tensions and market pressures.
- He is torn between dominating China symbolically and making a deal, but is immature to start negotiations.
China's Economic Resilience
- China is better positioned economically to withstand the trade war shocks than the US.
- China can stimulate domestic demand, while US consumers face shortages, inflation, and layoffs.
Severe Impact of US-China Decoupling
- The US aim to sever economic ties with China overnight is very destabilizing to both economies and the global system.
- Euphemisms like "decoupling" underplay the violent and destabilizing reality of this economic break.