Cathie Wood and Yassine Elmandjra discuss ARK's history with bitcoin, bitcoin spot ETF approval, the upcoming halving, and why they believe bitcoin is both a risk-on and risk-off asset. They also touch on fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation updates.
Bitcoin has evolved from a curiosity to a strategic addition to investment portfolios, proving its resilience during the 2022 contagion and offering protection against counterparty risk.
The imminent Bitcoin halving in 2024, reinforcing its scarcity, and the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF are expected to drive up demand and potentially push Bitcoin's price higher as institutions enter the market.
Deep dives
ARK's History with Bitcoin
ARK Invest has been involved with Bitcoin since 2015, when they first understood its potential and added it to their portfolio. They have seen Bitcoin evolve from a curiosity to a strategic addition to a diversified investment portfolio. Despite initial skepticism, ARK's conviction in Bitcoin has never been higher, especially as it proved resilient during the 2022 contagion. They view Bitcoin as both a risk-on and risk-off asset, with its decentralized and transparent nature offering protection against counterparty risk in the financial ecosystem.
Bitcoin's Evolution and Narrative Shift
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has undergone a significant narrative shift. Initially seen as a speculative asset for hobbyists or associated with criminal activity, it has now gained acceptance as a strategic addition to investment portfolios. The market started to understand that inflation was transitory, and Bitcoin's performance during the regional bank collapse further solidified its risk-off narrative. With the impending Bitcoin halving in 2024, which reinforces its scarcity, and the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, institutions are expected to enter the market, driving up demand and potentially pushing Bitcoin's price higher.
ARK's Investing Outlook and Recession Expectations
ARK Invest believes that 2023 marked the realization that the Federal Reserve was done raising interest rates and inflation was transitory. They expect a recession in the near future due to falling prices resulting from high inventory levels and consumer resistance to elevated prices. Market indicators such as leading economic indicators, jobless claims, and temporary help employment indicate a fraying employment situation. Furthermore, capital spending leading indicators and the dollar strength point towards potential economic challenges. However, ARK also believes that innovation will solve these problems and lead to a period of turbocharged economic growth.
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Considerations
In terms of policy, ARK highlights that the U.S. has entered an era of gridlock, which may limit fiscal policy efforts. However, they predict that the Federal Reserve will have to reverse its current monetary policy stance as inflation cools off and the economy faces recessionary pressures. The strength of the U.S. dollar and the downtrend in commodity prices also signal deflationary pressures. ARK expects interest rates to surprise on the low side of expectations, with the potential for long-term Treasury yields to drop to around 2%. They emphasize that a strong dollar and lower interest rates will be anti-inflationary and provide a boost to their innovation-focused investment strategy.
On today’s episode of FYI we will be featuring the most recent In The Know with Cathie Wood, a monthly video series that covers fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation. On this specific In The Know, Cathie Wood is joined by ARK Director of Digital Assets, Yassine Elmandjra. Together, they discuss ARK's history with bitcoin, bitcoin spot ETF approval, the upcoming halving, and why we believe bitcoin is both a risk-on and risk-off asset.
Key Points From This Episode
ARK's history with bitcoin
Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval
Bitcoin halving
Why we believe bitcoin is both a risk-on and risk-off asset
Fiscal policy
Monetary policy
Market signals
Economic indicators
Innovation updates
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