Peak Prosperity Can (or Will) the Fed Paper Over the Coming Recession?
May 1, 2025
Paul Kiker, a wealth manager at Kiker Wealth Management, shares his insights on the looming recession and its implications for investors. He discusses the contraction of GDP due to tariffs and the slowing labor market, warning of complacent retail investors. The conversation touches on the psychological challenges of navigating market volatility and the risks of passive investment strategies amid rising national debt. Kiker also critiques U.S. leadership on energy policies, highlighting the disconnect between economic perception and reality.
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Tariffs Distort GDP Reading
- US GDP contraction was mainly caused by tariff-related import surges, which distorted economic readings.
- Investment showed strength, suggesting underlying economic resilience despite headline contraction.
Labor Market Weakens
- Job openings have sharply declined, signaling weakening labor demand and rising economic uncertainty.
- The ratio of job openings to unemployed persons approaching 1 suggests early signs of recession.
Restaurant Sales as Recession Indicator
- Chris Martenson’s CPA observed early signs of weakness in restaurant business, a typical leading recession indicator.
- Higher prices and economic sensitivity are negatively affecting consumer spending in restaurants.