The Intelligence from The Economist The Intelligence: Iran’s dangerous game in Gaza
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Oct 27, 2023 Nicholas Pelham, Middle East correspondent for The Economist, shares his insights into Iran's geopolitical strategies and its implications for the Middle East. He discusses recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian-linked bases in Syria and how Iran is expertly navigating rising tensions with the West, particularly regarding Israel. The conversation turns to the potential for increased international involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, highlighting the dangerous game Iran is playing amid regional volatility.
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Iran's Calculated Escalation
- Iran seeks to escalate tensions with the West and Israel, but avoids all-out war.
- This strategy benefits Iran economically with increased oil prices, and politically by delaying a potential normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Economic Gains for Iran
- The current crisis benefits Iran's economy due to rising oil prices.
- Iran's increased oil production is tolerated due to America's other priorities and concerns about inflation.
Risks of Escalation for Iran
- Iran faces risks in escalating the conflict, including potential war with America and domestic protests.
- These risks are amplified by internal tensions, like the recent incident with the Iranian schoolgirl and morality police.