3 tools for predicting 2122 | Peter Schwartz

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Nov 17, 2025

Peter Schwartz, a renowned futurist and Chief Future Officer at Salesforce, delves into the art of predicting futures. He discusses why envisioning positive outcomes is often harder than imagining disasters. Schwartz emphasizes the importance of scenario planning, where multiple possible futures are explored to inform decisions. He shares insights from his work on films like Minority Report and highlights the role of collaboration in foresight. Genetic engineering's potential to enhance human capabilities is also a key topic, sparking thoughts on a radically different future.

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INSIGHT

Futurism Is Decision Support

Futurists study possible futures to help people make better decisions today.
Peter Schwartz frames futurism as exploring possibilities, not predicting a single outcome.

ADVICE

Practice Ruthless Curiosity

Develop ruthless curiosity by reading widely across science, economics, politics, and the environment.
Collaborate and use imagination to test decisions against multiple scenarios.

ANECDOTE

The California Island Map Mistake

Early maps showed California as an island and explorers acted on that false belief.
The missionaries trusted those maps and made costly, unnecessary voyages across mountains.

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Peter Schwartz, the futurist behind Minority Report, explains 3 steps for predicting what comes next. It's very easy to imagine how things might go wrong, but it's much harder to imagine how things might go right. "Futurists" are those who study the future so that the people alive today can make better decisions for tomorrow. It is impossible to get all of the predictions right. The point of futurism, however, is to envision multiple scenarios in which we can test our decisions so that we are ready for whatever actually occurs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This video is part of The Progress Issue, a Big Think and Freethink special collaboration. In this inaugural special issue we set out to explore progress — how it happens, how we nurture it and how we stifle it, and what changes are required in how we approach our most serious problems to ensure greater and more equitable progress for all. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- About Peter Schwartz: Peter Schwartz is an internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, specializing in scenario planning and working with corporations, governments, and institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. As Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning for Salesforce, he manages the organization’s ongoing strategic conversation. Peter was co-founder and chairman of Global Business Network. He is the author of several works. His first book, The Art of the Long View, is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning. Peter has also served as a script consultant on the films "The Minority Report," "Deep Impact," "Sneakers," and "War Games." He received a B.S. In aeronautical engineering and astronautics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------06:30-19

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