FiveThirtyEight Politics Beneath A Steady Race, A Shifting America
Oct 7, 2024
Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics at FiveThirtyEight, and Mary Radcliffe, Senior Researcher at FiveThirtyEight, tackle the complex dynamics shaping the upcoming election. They discuss the potential impact of generational and racial shifts on the Electoral College map. The conversation delves into changing American views on the Israel-Hamas conflict, evolving voter perceptions of Trump and Harris, and innovative polling techniques, including AI's role in election narratives. Their insights illuminate a rapidly evolving political landscape.
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Shifting Public Opinion on Middle East Aid
- American public opinion on Middle East aid shifted around January 2024.
- Support for military aid to Israel decreased while support for Palestinian humanitarian aid increased.
Impact of Rafah Strikes on Public Opinion
- Decreasing support for military aid to Israel appears tied to specific events.
- Reports of Israeli strikes in Rafah, gaining publicity in January, likely fueled this shift.
Impact of Global Turmoil on Candidate Perception
- While Middle East conflict may not determine voter choice directly, it influences perceptions of candidates' leadership.
- Voters consider who they trust more with foreign policy and national security amidst global turmoil.