Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, shares insights on the shifting landscape of the Ukraine war post-Trump's election. He highlights the complexities of peace negotiations, including territorial disputes and NATO membership. Discussing the differing Russian perspectives, he emphasizes the need for compromises and the involvement of global powers like BRICS to forge a constructive dialogue. The conversation also delves into the challenges of demilitarization and the essential role of Western support in shaping outcomes.
Ukrainian willingness to negotiate reflects a strategic shift in response to political changes, emphasizing the need for dialogue to maintain Western support.
In Russia, a split perspective on the war's outcome shows a push for negotiation amidst doubts about military strategy and territorial integrity.
Deep dives
Shifting Ukrainian Expectations
Ukrainian expectations are changing in light of recent political developments, particularly following Trump's re-election. The realization has dawned on Ukraine that its pursuit of complete military victory may risk losing support from key international allies like the Trump administration, especially with figures opposed to ongoing aid. Public opinion in Ukraine is likewise shifting toward a willingness to negotiate, acknowledging the complexities of the battlefield and the need for dialogue. This awareness prompts Ukraine to seek compromise to maintain support from its Western partners, primarily the United States.
Russian Perspectives on the Conflict
Inside Russia, two main perspectives dominate discussions on the war's future, reflecting the challenges faced by the Kremlin. Hardliners believe that with Western support dwindling, maintaining pressure on Ukraine could lead to a larger victory, while a significant portion of public and political opinion supports a peace settlement to avoid further losses. Russian military advances are slow, indicating a struggle to achieve decisive victories, leading some within the establishment to question Putin's strategy and military decisions. This environment reveals an underlying skepticism about the feasibility of a total military triumph and highlights the importance of negotiated settlements.
Territorial Claims and Settlement Dynamics
The question of territory remains contentious in potential peace negotiations, as withdrawing from occupied areas could be seen as a defeat for Russia. Many Russians associate the eastern provinces with historical significance, complicating any potential compromises regarding territorial integrity. As both sides prepare for negotiations, there is a mutual understanding that initial demands may be adjusted—Russia might seek to solidify its presence in occupied territories while agreeing to limit Ukraine’s military capabilities. Thus, discussions around territorial control and the broader implications on regional geopolitics will be critical in determining the direction and success of future talks.
Navigating Complex Negotiations
The potential for successful negotiations hinges on the ability to facilitate dialogue between the U.S. and Russia, addressing key issues without additional escalation. External pressures from European nations could present obstacles, as some European officials may resist compromises that would appear to favor Russia's position or diminish Ukraine's sovereignty. By establishing a back channel for private discussions, the possibility of reaching a consensus on demilitarization and peace guarantees can be explored in a less public and contentious environment. Ultimately, the successful navigation of these complexities will require that all parties acknowledge each other's security needs and historical contexts to move towards an effective and lasting resolution.
Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, discusses how the international politics of the Ukraine war have changed since Trump’s election win, how to move towards negotiations to end the war, and the various issues - from territory to NATO membership - to be resolved in any peace deal.