Power Problems Negotiating Peace in Ukraine
Dec 24, 2024
Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, shares insights on the shifting landscape of the Ukraine war post-Trump's election. He highlights the complexities of peace negotiations, including territorial disputes and NATO membership. Discussing the differing Russian perspectives, he emphasizes the need for compromises and the involvement of global powers like BRICS to forge a constructive dialogue. The conversation also delves into the challenges of demilitarization and the essential role of Western support in shaping outcomes.
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Shifting Expectations
- Ukrainians realize that pushing for complete victory risks alienating the Trump administration.
- European aid can't substitute for American aid, so Europe will likely follow America's lead.
Russian Perspectives on the War
- Two main opinions exist in the Russian establishment: hardliners who believe in grinding away for a bigger victory, and those skeptical about such a victory.
- Putin seems unwilling to launch mass conscription, opting for a war of attrition.
Territorial Disputes and Russian Motives
- Russia's hold on eastern provinces is strengthened by local loyalties and fear of reprisals from the Ukrainian state.
- Putin's annexation claims in Kherson and Zaporizhia are unclear whether a bargaining tactic or genuine demand.
