The Political Scene | The New Yorker Where Is the Iran-Israel Conflict Headed?
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Jun 20, 2025 Karim Sadjadpour, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a prominent Iran expert, joins the discussion on the fraught conflict between Israel and Iran. He delves into how personal stakes for leaders like Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could drive the next moves in this escalating tension. Sadjadpour warns that their sense of honor may overshadow national interests. The conversation also touches on the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, military tensions, and Iran's nuclear ambitions in an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
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Unnatural Adversaries Iran and Israel
- Israel and Iran have no direct territorial conflicts, but ideological choices post-1979 revolution have entrenched their hostility.
- Iran's hostility towards Israel is a consciously chosen ideological conflict, not an ancient or inevitable one.
Why Netanyahu Acted Now
- Netanyahu acted out of mistrust that Trump would fully stop Iran's nuclear program, fearing partial deals like the JCPOA.
- Israel struck because Iran was nearing nuclear capability and temporarily weakened air defenses gave a narrow window.
Iran's Nuclear Threshold
- Iran was close to having enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon but not imminently ready to build one.
- Iran’s strategy resembled Japan's: close to but not actually developing nuclear weapons, hesitating to cross that threshold.