Ted Swimmer, Head of Capital Markets and Advisory at Citizens Bank, sheds light on the evolving landscape of capital markets. He discusses the rise of private credit as traditional banks adapt to partner with private lenders, enhancing their protection against potential deal failures. Swimmer also navigates the challenging IPO market, assessing how economic uncertainties are shaping investment strategies. Expect insightful takes on how shifts in market dynamics are influencing financial planning and M&A activity.
General Motors is suspending its earnings guidance and share buybacks due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs impacting their financial forecasts.
Mark Carney's leadership in Canada highlights the need for collaboration amidst a politically fragmented landscape focused on U.S. trade relations.
Deep dives
Challenges Facing General Motors Amid Tariff Uncertainty
General Motors (GM) has recently adjusted its operations due to uncertainties surrounding auto tariffs, leading the company to freeze its share buyback program and delay its earnings call. The uncertainty stems from potential relaxation of tariffs by the Trump administration, leaving GM and other automakers unable to effectively predict their earnings amidst these changing regulations. Although GM made previous guidance predictions, they have since recognized that these did not account for significant tariff implications, leading to a reduction in confidence regarding their financial forecasts. In response, GM has increased production at its Fort Wayne, Indiana plant for pickup trucks to compensate for any tariff costs on parts imported from Canada and Mexico, indicating a proactive approach to mitigating potential impacts on sales.
Canada's Political Landscape and Trade Relations
Mark Carney has emerged as the leader of the Liberal Party in a closely contested Canadian election, securing a mandate that lacks majority support. This situation will require him to collaborate with other political factions to advance his ambitious agenda, particularly concerning trade relations with the U.S. Carney's campaign focused on winning the trade war against the Trump administration, positioning himself as a strong advocate for Canadian sovereignty and economic interests. The political dynamics within the Conservative Party remain uncertain following recent losses, and there is widespread speculation on how they will adapt to the changing political climate while addressing the growing concerns over U.S.-Canada relations.
Current State of M&A and IPO Markets
The M&A landscape has seen a slowdown as companies grapple with uncertainties related to tariffs and economic conditions, although there remains a level of ongoing activity and interest in transactions. The confidence level among executives has been impacted, making it challenging to finalize deals, yet businesses are still actively engaging in discussions, indicating a resilient market. Meanwhile, the IPO market has struggled, with potential offerings delayed due to market volatility and fear of fluctuating stock prices during issuance. Despite these challenges, opportunities exist for companies in unaffected industries, and there is speculation that a return to stability could lead to a resurgence in both M&A activity and IPO launches.
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Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Alix Steel
Today’s Podcast Features are:
David Welch, Bloomberg Detroit Bureau Chief, recaps GM earnings. General Motors is pulling earnings guidance for 2025 and putting $4 billion in share buybacks on hold until it has more clarity on the impact of US tariffs.
David Gura, Correspondent for Bloomberg, and Host of 'The Big Take' podcast" discusses Canada’s election. Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth straight election, as voters chose former central banker Mark Carney to manage the country’s response to US President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Ted Swimmer, Head of Capital Markets and Advisory at Citizens Bank, discusses the latest on capital markets, the IPO market, and private markets. He discusses the evolution of the private credit space -- where traditional banks are increasingly partnering with private lenders. David also talks about how lenders are protecting themselves from private credit deals going bad through the use of unique covenants.
Ben Miller, Co-Founder and CEO at Fundrise, discusses the state of commercial real estate. In the longer term, starting with the naming of a new Fed chair in May of 2026, Ben expects rates to come down significantly and quickly. He thinks even in a low rates/low growth environment (like the 2010’s), this would be a gift to real estate owners/investors.
