Randy Schwimmer discusses the private credit boom, Brianne Lynch explores potential 2024 IPOs, Neil Hennessy shares stock picks and economic outlook, and Jen Flitton discusses Washington's response to Israel and other DC issues.
The government has passed a continuing resolution to fund the government into January, avoiding a shutdown threat over the holidays, with key appropriations bills to be negotiated in January, including defense, labor, HHS, homeland, immigration, interior, and environment.
Investors should closely watch the negotiations on appropriations, executive actions taken by agencies, and key amendment additions to important bills in the next few weeks, as decisions made during this period will have implications for sectors such as defense, cryptocurrency, China outbound investment, AI, and money laundering.
Deep dives
Government Shutdown Unlikely Until January
The government has passed a continuing resolution to fund the government into January, avoiding a shutdown threat over the holidays. Some key appropriations bills will need to be negotiated in January, such as the Agriculture Bill, Energy Bill, Milcon, and A Bill. The more challenging appropriations bills, including defense, labor, HHS, homeland, immigration, interior, and environment, will be dealt with by February. Compromise will be needed, as Democrats and Republicans have different budget numbers. Another potential shutdown situation will emerge in January before the February 2nd deadlines.
Mike Johnson as New House Speaker
The new House Speaker, Mike Johnson, must navigate the delicate balance between the far-right members of his party and the need to get things done. Compromise will be crucial for Speaker Johnson to successfully integrate different factions and advance legislative matters such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the $106 billion supplemental bill. He faces challenges in finding agreements that can gain support from the wider conference.
Investor Considerations Amid Washington Developments
Investors should be mindful of the tight margin in Congress, where compromise is necessary due to narrow vote margins. The interplay of policy decisions, appropriations deadlines, and potential market volatility is worth monitoring. The upcoming elections will likely overshadow other factors and could impact market dynamics. While monetary policy discussions from the Federal Reserve may influence investments, fiscal matters and election year politics are expected to play a more significant role in shaping market sentiment in 2024.
Implications for Investors
The next few weeks encompass the majority of expected legislation to be passed. Key focuses include the National Defense Authorization Act, appropriations negotiations, potential tax extenders, and executive action to advance the Biden administration's agenda. Investors should closely watch the negotiations on appropriations, executive actions taken by agencies, and key amendment additions to important bills. Decisions made during this period will have implications for sectors such as defense, cryptocurrency, China outbound investment, AI, and money laundering.
Randy Schwimmer, co-head of Senior Lending at Churchill Asset Management, on the private credit boom this year and whether it’s a bubble. Brianne Lynch, Head of Market Insight at EquityZen, joins to discuss potential 2024 IPOs, including Reddit, Shein, and SKIMS. Neil Hennessy, Hennessy Advisors Chief Strategist, joins to discuss markets, mid-caps, and gives his stock picks and eco outlook. Jen Flitton, Head of US Government Affairs at Invesco, joins to discuss Washington’s response to Israel, foreign aid, and another shutdown showdown, as well as other DC issues. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton.