WSJ What’s News Why This Economist Says Government Economic Surveys Can’t Be Replaced
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Sep 7, 2025 Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board and former Citigroup researcher, discusses the latest consumer confidence index and whether we're experiencing a 'vibecession.' She emphasizes the significance of survey-based data, arguing against its potential replacement by private data sources. The conversation also delves into how varying consumer perceptions, influenced by inflation and market volatility, shape economic sentiment and stability. Peterson highlights the vital link between job security perceptions and consumer spending.
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Mixed But Not Panic-Level Confidence
- The Conference Board's August consumer-confidence headline sat near recent averages despite mixed components.
- Confidence remains well above Great Recession lows but below post-pandemic peaks.
People See Economy Broadly Improving But Fear Jobs
- Consumers see stock-market gains as evidence business conditions are improving while fearing job prospects.
- Conference Board respondents reported good incomes and personal finances despite worries about hiring.
High Price Levels Matter More Than Rates
- Consumers feel the high price level more than the current inflation rate.
- Even small price increases hurt because baseline prices remain elevated from prior years.