Coffee House Shots The OBR on the Budget leak & why they're always wrong
Nov 27, 2025
Tim Shipman talks with David Miles, a Professor of Economics at Imperial College London and OBR committee member. They dive into the recent Budget leak and what it means for the UK's growth and productivity forecasts, revealing why conditions appear bleaker than expected. David clarifies the implications of delayed tax rises and explores why the UK struggles to adopt its own innovations. They also discuss the political motivations behind fiscal choices and the OBR’s approach to scoring proposed reforms amidst uncertainty.
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OBR Budget Leak And Immediate Inquiry
- The OBR discovered the full Budget publication leaked about 40–45 minutes before the Chancellor spoke.
- David Miles said the OBR launched an immediate investigation led by Baroness Sarah Hogg and Kieran Martin to find out what happened.
Headroom Eroded By Productivity Downgrade
- The OBR's pre-measures forecast showed the government's small spring headroom had almost vanished.
- Miles said lower productivity and other moving parts largely erased the roughly £10bn buffer since March.
£22bn Margin Offers Limited Security
- The Chancellor restored about £22bn of headroom but OBR judges that's only about a 60% chance of meeting the target if policy stays unchanged.
- Miles stressed that with time and future budgets the government can still adjust course if needed.