Stratechery Intel's Death and Potential Revival
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Dec 9, 2024 The historical impact of the IBM PC is dissected, highlighting its dependency on Microsoft and Intel. A lively debate on CISC versus RISC architectures reveals insights on efficiency and performance. The iPhone's arrival shakes up the tech landscape, marking Intel's decline in semiconductors. Leadership changes at Intel are scrutinized, emphasizing the need for a solid strategy to reclaim its market position. Finally, a call for U.S. investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing underscores the geopolitical stakes and the future of AI.
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Intel's x86: From Moat to Millstone
- Intel's x86 architecture, initially a strength due to its CISC design and backwards compatibility, became a weakness in the mobile era.
- The shift to prioritizing efficiency over performance in mobile devices made rewriting software a necessity, rendering x86 a burden.
Gelsinger's CISC Advocacy
- Pat Gelsinger championed CISC and x86 against RISC, correctly predicting that software compatibility and Moore's Law would outweigh performance differences.
- Gelsinger engaged in public debates with John Hennessy, a proponent of RISC, highlighting the importance of software compatibility.
Intel's Missed Mobile Opportunity
- Tony Fadell highlighted Intel's focus on performance over efficiency as a key factor in their decline in the mobile market.
- He contrasted Intel's approach with Apple's, emphasizing the importance of starting with efficiency and building up, rather than shrinking down desktop technology.