David Lebowitz chats with Jared Gross, Head of Institutional Portfolio Strategy, about the 2025 Asset Allocation Draft. They dive into macroeconomic trends, consumer behavior, and labor market stability. The conversation spotlights risk assets and the need for an active investment approach. They emphasize the shift in the U.S. equity market, with mid-cap stocks gaining attention, and underscore the value of core real assets like real estate. A bold recommendation for investing in Japanese equities also adds a twist to their strategic insights.
The podcast emphasizes the strong U.S. economic outlook for 2025, underpinned by solid consumer health and stable wage growth amidst global challenges.
A strategic asset allocation draft highlights the importance of diversifying portfolios with equities, fixed income, and core real assets to optimize returns.
Deep dives
U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. economic outlook for 2025 appears solid, driven by several positive factors, including strong consumer health and potential increases in capital spending. While challenges exist globally, the U.S. labor market remains robust, with stable wage growth around 4% despite fluctuations in inflation. Historical comparisons indicate that the current productivity growth aligns with acceptable wage growth levels, supporting the economy's health under the new administration. Policymaking will focus on immigration, tariffs, tax reform, and deregulation, forming the foundation for expected improvements and growth in the coming year.
Investment Strategy and Risk Assets
Portfolio construction is trending towards a bias in favor of risk assets, particularly in the U.S., with a focus on equities driven by strong financial indicators like revenue growth and cash flow. The past cycles showed early market reactions to Fed policies, indicating the need for a cautious approach when making asset class selections. Distinctions between the U.S. and other global markets are clear, with Japan and emerging markets expected to present diverse opportunities based on forthcoming policies. Increasing concentration in U.S. markets reflects genuine value within the major firms, necessitating a balanced investment approach that avoids purely passive strategies.
Fixed Income Landscape
The fixed income market currently presents attractive opportunities, particularly with the rise of interest rates that ensure positive real yields across the curve. Investors are re-evaluating their strategies, especially after a challenging previous year characterized by high correlations between bond and equity performance. As the Fed's easing continues in moderation, the focus shifts to identifying sectors within fixed income that provide adequate returns without excessive risk. This landscape allows for balancing equity investments while seeking stability through fixed income reallocation, particularly in high-yield scenarios.
Core Real Assets and Alternatives
Core real assets are viewed as vital components of an investment portfolio, delivering diversification, inflation protection, and healthy yields amidst ongoing economic uncertainties. Within this space, real estate and infrastructure stand out, the latter benefiting from anticipated government spending and critical infrastructure needs. Investors exhibit growing interest in diversifying portfolios with core real estate—characterized by high-quality assets—offering resilience against inflationary pressures. Furthermore, financial alternatives, such as private equity and hedge funds, are evaluated for their potential under changing market conditions, emphasizing the importance of manager selection and strategy amidst rising interest rates.
In this episode, join host David Lebowitz, Global Market Strategist, and special guest Jared Gross, Head of Institutional Portfolio Strategy, as they return to the Center for Investment Excellence for their annual Asset Allocation Draft. In this insightful episode, they provide a comprehensive macroeconomic update and delve into the intricacies of asset allocation for 2025. The discussion covers a range of asset classes, including equities, fixed income, real assets, and financial alternatives, with each host making strategic picks for the upcoming year.
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