Kevin Rudd highlights the dangers of a catastrophic US-China conflict despite his unique access to Chinese leaders.
Xi Jinping's authoritarian control, nationalist strategies, and economic challenges pose risks to China's stability and international relations.
Deep dives
Xi Jinping's Leadership Style and Worldview
Xi Jinping, China's leader, is noted for his strong Communist Party background, maintaining a reserved demeanor to conceal personal views. Unlike his predecessor, Hu Jintao, Xi shows confidence without relying on notes and is knowledgeable about Chinese history and classical traditions. He portrays himself as a historic figure eager to reshape global norms.
China's Perception of the West
Xi Jinping's views contrast with former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, who manifestly admired Western culture. Xi's stance on Western ideology was starkly revealed in the leaked Document 9 that criticized Western influences. His ideological stance leans towards Marxism-Leninism, emphasizing a struggle between progressive and reactionary forces.
Xi Jinping's Centralized Control and Political Strategy
In Xi's strategic framework, maintaining power and control over the Communist Party through intensive surveillance and centralization are key. However, such authoritarian control could pose long-term challenges, potentially inviting social backlash. Xi's mastery lies in outmaneuvering emerging dissent by leveraging nationalism, a strategy that can become uncontrollable.
Risk of Conflict and Economic Stability
China's left-leaning economic policies, bolstered by Xi's policies and global context, could undermine economic stability and growth. Concerns over the 'Zero COVID' policy's impact on financial and economic crises exacerbate vulnerabilities due to Xi's limited economic understanding. The combination of economic challenges, geopolitical tensions, and rigid policy stances poses risks for China's future stability and global relations.
As Australia’s Defence Minister warns his nation to ‘prepare for war’ with China, there’s a growing feeling of inevitability about a future conflict between China and the United States. Against this rather bleak backdrop, we hear from one global figure who has had unusual access to China's leaders: Australia's former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. The President and CEO of the Asia Society, he describes himself as a Sinologist at the tables of power. He's probably the only Mandarin-speaking world leader to have one-on-ones with Xi Jinping and hear Jiang Zemin's rendition of O Sole Mio at Sydney Opera House. Rudd is publishing a book called The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the United States and Xi Jinping’s China. This episode is a live recording of his Melbourne book launch, hosted by Louisa. In it, Rudd unpacks the logic of a future war, warns of Xi's biggest vulnerability and predicts a rocky few months ahead. This event was co-hosted by the Asia Society, the Wheeler Centre and RMIT Live.
Image: Kevin Rudd and Louisa Lim at the Capitol Theatre c/- The Wheeler Centre, 2022
