Prof G Markets What Venezuela’s Regime Change Means for Oil
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Jan 6, 2026 
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, shares his insights on GDP, inflation, and employment forecasts for 2026. Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group, discusses the implications of President Maduro's ouster on the oil markets. They explore Venezuela's oil capacity and the significant challenges U.S. companies face in reviving production. McNally highlights the long-term risks involved in investing in Venezuelan oil, emphasizing the need to navigate both technical and political hurdles.
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Huge Reserves, Limited Short-Term Impact
- Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels, the largest proven reserves on Earth.
- But those reserves are not immediately market-relevant due to production collapse and quality issues.
Production Collapsed From Its Peak
- Venezuela now produces under one million barrels per day, roughly 1% of global supply.
- Production fell from ~3 million b/d due to underinvestment and mismanagement over decades.
Advance Warning To Clients About Maduro
- Rapidan raised odds of Maduro's removal to 70% on December 15th and told clients accordingly.
- They anticipated either negotiated exile or forcible removal before the operation occurred.