The Investor’s Guide to China: Dealing with China's debt (#33)
Sep 24, 2024
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Bich Nguyen, Director of Research for Fixed Income at Fidelity International, Tae Ho Ryu, a Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, and Olivia He, another Portfolio Manager specializing in Chinese government bonds, delve into China's economic landscape. They discuss China's recent policies aimed at boosting growth while managing debt, shifting focus from supply expansion to demand stimulation. The conversation covers the dynamics of onshore versus offshore bonds, local government debt, and how these factors impact investment strategies in an evolving market.
China's economic policies are now focused on stimulating demand rather than expanding supply, emphasizing financial stability and disciplined debt management.
The property market's growth, fueled by debt financing, is being regulated by the government to avoid excess leverage and ensure financial stability.
Deep dives
China's Debt Dynamics
China's current economic policies are focused on stimulating demand rather than expanding supply, marking a departure from past practices where massive spending aimed to increase supply following the financial crisis. The central government debt is reported to be around 40% of GDP, suggesting that while the total debt appears high, most of it encompasses household and corporate debt. This shift reflects a new growth model centered on 'higher quality growth', which prioritizes financial stability and a more measured approach to infrastructure and credit expansion. As the government navigates these changes, the emphasis remains on fostering sustainable economic conditions while managing the implications of rising debt levels.
The Property Market's Role
The Chinese property market has grown significantly since the country opened to global markets, driven by an expanding middle class eager for homeownership. Over the past 10 to 15 years, property developers have relied heavily on debt financing to accommodate the skyrocketing demand for housing, leading to substantial growth in the market. Although concerns have emerged about a housing bubble similar to that experienced in the U.S. before the financial crisis, the Chinese government has actively intervened to regulate the market and prevent excessive leverage. This intervention underscores the focus on maintaining financial stability, as the downturn in the property market has so far been managed without major fallout within the banking sector.
Investment Opportunities
Investors are currently looking at two distinct markets: the onshore renminbi bond market and the offshore dollar-denominated bond market. In the renminbi market, yields are expected to remain low, which is beneficial for bond prices, while in the offshore market, the property sector's contribution to the overall index has diminished significantly, creating a more diversified landscape for investors. Asian high-yield bonds are presenting yields around 7% to 8%, appealing in a landscape where global treasury yields have increased, prompting many to seek better income opportunities. As the Chinese banking sector remains stable and well-regulated, there are attractive investment prospects in both high-yield securities and other emerging markets within the region.
China has come out with a string of policies that are targeted to reinvigorate economic growth. Some of the policies are adding leverage to the government’s balance sheet. A question that investors are asking is: how much more will China realistically spend to stimulate the economy?
So far, these policies have focused on shoring up demand - unlike after the financial crisis, when China spent trillions of renminbi to expand supply. That is an importance difference because it implies policymakers remain disciplined in the way they choose to manage debt.
Marty Dropkin, Head of Equities, Asia Pacific, asks Fidelity International’s Director of Research for Fixed Income, Asia Pacific, Bich Nguyen, and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Tae Ho Ryu, about how investors should approach the issue.
With an additional contribution from Portfolio Manager Olivia He.
This episode was recorded on September 12th, 2024, before the most recent policy measures were announced.