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The Investor's Guide to China

The Investor’s Guide to China: Dealing with China's debt (#33)

Sep 24, 2024
Bich Nguyen, Director of Research for Fixed Income at Fidelity International, Tae Ho Ryu, a Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, and Olivia He, another Portfolio Manager specializing in Chinese government bonds, delve into China's economic landscape. They discuss China's recent policies aimed at boosting growth while managing debt, shifting focus from supply expansion to demand stimulation. The conversation covers the dynamics of onshore versus offshore bonds, local government debt, and how these factors impact investment strategies in an evolving market.
30:19

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • China's economic policies are now focused on stimulating demand rather than expanding supply, emphasizing financial stability and disciplined debt management.
  • The property market's growth, fueled by debt financing, is being regulated by the government to avoid excess leverage and ensure financial stability.

Deep dives

China's Debt Dynamics

China's current economic policies are focused on stimulating demand rather than expanding supply, marking a departure from past practices where massive spending aimed to increase supply following the financial crisis. The central government debt is reported to be around 40% of GDP, suggesting that while the total debt appears high, most of it encompasses household and corporate debt. This shift reflects a new growth model centered on 'higher quality growth', which prioritizes financial stability and a more measured approach to infrastructure and credit expansion. As the government navigates these changes, the emphasis remains on fostering sustainable economic conditions while managing the implications of rising debt levels.

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