Jennifer Welch, Chief geo-economics editor at Bloomberg Economics, shares her expertise on the intricate US-China trade dynamics surrounding rare earths. Alex Grassino, Global chief economist at Manulife, discusses the uncertain economic landscape and investment strategies amid fluctuating tariffs. Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, analyzes inflation and its impact on Federal Reserve policy while Brad Stone provides insights into the shifting political climate in California, highlighting the tension between national narratives and state realities.
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insights INSIGHT
US-China Trade Talks Status
The US-China trade talks in London mostly restored agreements from Geneva without new tariff changes.
China leverages rare earth exports heavily, weakening US negotiation power in the near term.
insights INSIGHT
High Tariffs Impact on Trade
Remaining high tariffs cause about 70% reduction in US-China trade, leading to potential shortages and price hikes.
Supply chain disruptions could create missing goods on shelves if importing becomes uneconomical.
insights INSIGHT
Early Tariff Impact Mixed
Early signs show tariffs causing price hikes in some goods but cooling demand weakens prices in areas like travel.
Full tariff pass-through effects normally take two to three months to appear in consumer prices.
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President Donald Trump said a trade framework with China has been completed, with Beijing supplying rare earths and magnets “UP FRONT” and the US allowing Chinese students into its colleges and universities.
The US and China will maintain tariffs at their current, lower levels following the two nations’ agreement this week in London, Trump said Wednesday. That number is still higher than before the president took office. Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping and he must still formally sign off on the agreement.
“OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME,” Trump posted on social media. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT!”
Yet after months of tense back-and-forth between Washington and Beijing, it remained unclear if the latest round of negotiations brought the two sides closer to an ultimate understanding on trade — or if it just amounted to more talk.
“Trump is mentioning the current tariff status, in a misleading way, to show he has the upper hand,” said Neo Wang, lead China macro analyst at Evercore ISI.
Trump’s comments prompted fresh questions about the terms of the pact US and Chinese negotiators reached Tuesday. Markets had a mixed reaction on Wednesday to comments from Trump and his team, with US equity indexes fluctuating throughout the day.
Today's show features:
Bloomberg Economic Chief Geoeconomics Analyst Jennifer Welch on progress in in US-China trade negotiations
Alex Grassino, Global Chief Economist for Manulife Investment Management on investment options in the current economic environment
Julia Coronado, Founder and President of MacroPolicy Perspectives on the US economic outlook, and expectations for US monetary policy
Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Brad Stone on the LA riots and his feature story on the United States losing its moral authority across the globe
Bloomberg Businessweek 
