My guest this week is Bob Elliott, the CIO of Unlimited Funds. Before Unlimited, Bob was on the investment committee at Bridgewater and led Ray Dalio’s personal research team for a decade. I’m a big fan of Bob’s work and his twitter account and was excited to talk to him on all things Macro. We start by diving into the current market cycle and the US deficit, inflation and bond yields. Bob then explains the Fed’s reaction function and why he believes they are working with the wrong framework. We end by talking about gold, bitcoin, housing, commercial real estate and private equity. Please enjoy this conversation with Bob Elliott.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE.
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Show Notes
(00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets
(00:01:50) Understanding the Goldilocks Economy
(00:02:55) Comparing Economic Cycles
(00:04:02) Income-Driven Expansion Explained
(00:08:14) Wage Inflation Dynamics
(00:09:43) Impact of Asset Prices on Inflation
(00:16:18) Government Deficits and Economic Growth
(00:21:24) Federal Reserve's Role and Challenges
(00:26:58) The Role of Forward Guidance in Federal Reserve Policy
(00:27:44) Volatility and Misleading Predictions
(00:28:45) Market Reactions and Fed's Influence
(00:30:26) Understanding the Fed's Reaction Function
(00:31:53) Stock Market Dynamics and Earnings Growth
(00:33:17) The Case for Gold in a Portfolio
(00:38:46) Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Comparative Analysis
(00:41:34) Monetary Policy and Asset Correlations
(00:43:07) Housing Market Trends and Challenges
(00:45:12) Commercial Real Estate and Private Equity Concerns
(00:50:12) Market Consensus and Hedge Fund Strategies
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Making Markets