Supply Shock Why Bitcoin Can’t Scale | John Carvalho
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Nov 28, 2025 John Carvalho, CEO of Synonym and a Bitcoin innovator, shares his thought-provoking insights on Bitcoin scaling. He argues that the main issue isn't technology but trust. John challenges the effectiveness of Lightning and layer-two solutions, stating they inherit fundamental limitations. He highlights how trust dynamics are essential for a functional payment system and introduces his PubKey protocol for enhanced scalability. Additionally, he critiques treasury-backed products while offering a personal strategy for using Bitcoin effectively. Don't miss these unconventional views!
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Layers Are Trust, Not Scaling
- Bitcoin cannot be scaled by layers; layers are protocols for coordinating trust rather than true scaling mechanisms.
- John Carvalho argues mathematical limits make layer-based scaling infeasible beyond a few million users.
Good UX Masks Custody Tradeoffs
- Positive Lightning UX often hides the fact users rely on custodial or semi-custodial services that trade security for convenience.
- Carvalho says true self-custodial Lightning use requires users to manage channels, keys, and enforcement themselves.
There Are Math-Based Limits
- Carvalho claims there are calculable limits and congestion bounds for Lightning and similar layers that make them break under scale.
- He estimates Lightning may support only ~140,000 users in congestion before failing.