Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House joins to discuss Chair Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts, market expectations, Fed transparency, and inflation data. Topics include Fed policy attention, market reactions, and challenges in decision-making.
Fed Chair Powell stresses caution in interest rate cuts tied to inflation progress.
Economic data such as Core PCE influences Fed's monetary policy decisions and market expectations.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve's Approach to Interest Rates
Chairman Powell from the Federal Reserve highlighted the Fed's cautious approach towards cutting interest rates during the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference. He emphasized the importance of waiting for clear progress towards the 2% inflation target before considering rate cuts. Powell reiterated the Fed's focus on staying patient and not being in a hurry to cut rates unless confident about inflation trends, emphasizing transparency and stability in monetary policy decisions.
Economic Data and Monetary Policy Decisions
The discussion touched on the significance of economic data, particularly the Core PCE data, in shaping the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Powell underscored that the latest PCE data, aligning with expectations, was incremental progress towards the Fed's inflation goal. The analysis suggested that the data may influence market expectations on potential rate cuts, with a likelihood of a rate adjustment being more plausible around July pending further data evaluation.
Fed's Transparency and Market Expectations
The conversation explored the Fed's communication strategy and its impact on market reactions. Powell's emphasis on transparency and forward guidance aimed at avoiding market surprises highlighted the Fed's desire not to rattle financial markets. Additionally, the discussion questioned the level of focus on the Fed's statements by media and markets, suggesting a broader consideration of economic factors beyond just monetary policy in shaping growth and productivity.
Bloomberg's Nathan Hager and Michael McKee discuss the latest PCE data and reaction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Plus, reaction from Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House.