Asfandyar Mir, South Asia expert at USIP, discusses US-Pakistan relations, China's influence on Pakistan, Pakistani Taliban, and Al-Qaeda's status post Afghanistan withdrawal. He also reflects on academic paths, Pakistan's fragility, and the potential for US-Pakistan collaboration in counterterrorism efforts.
Pakistan's fragile state requires attention as a top US national security concern due to economic weaknesses and ongoing terrorism issues.
Pakistan's complex relationship with China involves strategic cooperation and shared interests, but underlying tensions exist with diverging foreign policy preferences.
Deep dives
Pakistan's Historical Challenges and Fragility
Pakistan has faced significant challenges in the past, with critical issues related to governance, economy, radicalization, and nuclear weapons. The tension with India has also posed a threat, potentially leading to conventional and nuclear conflicts. Despite overcoming past terrorism challenges, recent years have seen a resurgence in threats, especially with the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan. Economic weaknesses and ongoing terrorism issues keep Pakistan in a fragile state, requiring attention as a top US national security concern.
Political Dynamics in Pakistan and Recent Turmoil
Political stability in Pakistan has been a longstanding challenge, with influences from both civilian and military factions creating hybrid governance. Recent elections saw controversy, leading to the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif forming a ruling coalition. Contentious relationships with India and internal power struggles have characterized Pakistan's political landscape, impacting regional dynamics and international relations.
Militant Threats in Pakistan: Rise and Resurgence
The insurgency in Pakistan, rooted in the early 2000s post-US invasion of Afghanistan, saw the emergence of groups like the TTP, causing violence and instability. Efforts by the Pakistani military, along with US drone campaigns, initially subdued the threat. However, recent Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan has reignited the TTP's activities, posing a renewed security challenge. The complex interplay between militant groups, regional dynamics, and counterterrorism efforts underscores the ongoing risks in Pakistan.
Sino-Pak Relations: Strategic Depth and Inherent Frictions
The strong historical ties between China and Pakistan have deepened over shared interests, including countering India's influence and strategic cooperation. However, underlying tensions exist, with divergences in foreign policy preferences and mutual suspicions. Despite the proximity and economic engagements, concerns remain about potential Chinese military presence in Pakistan and Pakistan's balancing act between China and the West, underscoring the complexities of their relationship.
Michael talks with Asfandyar Mir, a South Asia senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace, about Pakistan. The two discuss the U.S. national security interest in Pakistan, relations between the two countries, the influence of China on Pakistan, and the Pakistani Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
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