

LGM Podcast: After the Spike
Sep 15, 2025
Dean Spears, an economist and author known for his research on demographic change, joins the discussion on global depopulation. He explains the significance of declining fertility rates and dispels myths surrounding population growth fears. Spears analyzes the relationship between cultural narratives, climate policy, and immigration's role in innovation. He emphasizes the ethical challenges of coercive population policies and the value of creating good lives over merely increasing population size. This insightful conversation reshapes our understanding of the future.
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Depopulation Is The Likely Future
- Depopulation means world population will shrink when each generation is smaller than the last.
- Dean Spears argues this is the most likely long-term path and matters for progress and planning.
Modern Data Makes The Difference
- Ehrlich's Population Bomb lacked modern demographic methods and data.
- Spears credits contemporary cohort models and surveys for reliable projections of falling birth rates.
Fertility Decline Is Long-Running
- Birth rates have been falling for centuries where records exist, not just since modern contraception.
- Spears notes the U.S. was unusually flat compared with the global long-term decline.