Battle Lines Wargaming WW3: how and where the next global conflict could actually unfold
Jan 2, 2026
Peter Apps, a Reuters global defense commentator and British Army reservist, explores the somber prospect of World War III. He estimates a 30-35% chance of conflict within the next decade, highlighting flashpoints like Estonia and Ukraine. Peter emphasizes the lessons from the early Cold War and critiques current defense strategies. He discusses the importance of leadership in deterrence, the implications of cybersecurity and space in warfare, and reflects on his background that influences his insights on modern conflicts.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
The Window To Prevent Global War
- Peter Apps frames the current moment as a race to prevent a new world war, not inevitability.
- He documents 2024–25 as a turning point where governments began preparing seriously to stop escalation.
Cold War Parallels Matter More Than 1930s
- Apps compares today more to the early Cold War than the 1930s because deterrence structures then worked.
- NATO's formation established clear lines that helped prevent wider escalation in Europe.
2024 As An Inflection Point
- Apps identifies 2024 as the year leaders finally acknowledged the real risk, partly due to political changes.
- Trump's statements about defending allies forced NATO and partners to reassess deterrence assumptions.
