Vietnam Likes Trump, China Factory Relocation, Startup Protectionism & Opportunities - E504

Valeri Vu, Founding Partner at Ansible Ventures, and Jeremy Au discussed:

1. Vietnam Likes Trump Win: Valerie analyzed the positive local sentiment towards Trump’s recent U.S. presidential win in 2024. She highlighted the $100 billion trade surplus Vietnam holds with the U.S. which brings potential American tariff risks, with a potential Vietnamese counterproposal to balance the trade relationship by purchasing defense and technology goods, such as aircraf. Trump’s hawkish stance on China indirectly benefits Vietnam by encouraging manufacturing shifts, but also brings challenges for maintaining stable trade relationships. Valerie highlighted Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy,” referencing recent efforts by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to engage with both the U.S. and China.

2. China Factory Relocation: The discussion focused on Vietnam’s growing role as a manufacturing hub, fueled by U.S. tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods. Valerie detailed how relocations, including consumer electronics factories, are concentrated in industrial parks in Bac Ninh (North) and Binh Duong (South), benefiting Vietnam’s manufacturing share, which currently stands at 2–3% globally. However, challenges persist, such as workforce skill gaps, rising coal consumption, and environmental concerns like air pollution. Vietnam is targeting growth in high-tech sectors, such as AI and software, to diversify its economic base. She also predicted that domestic consumption in Vietnam, currently sluggish due to lingering effects of a real estate crisis, will recover in 2025 as the economy stabilizes.

3. Startup Protectionism & Opportunities: Valerie outlined how local startups struggle to compete with international e-commerce giants like Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Temu, which dominate Vietnam’s market through aggressive pricing and logistics advantages. Local platforms such as Tiki and Sendo have seen their market shares eroded, a stark contrast to Indonesia, where protectionist policies like banning Temu have shielded domestic players. She highlighted the rise of Vietnamese diaspora founders, like Pham Nhat Vuong of Vingroup, who are returning to Vietnam with global experience to build competitive ventures. Valerie stressed the need for startups to go global to thrive, citing successful Vietnamese brands like Trung Nguyen Coffee. She noted that SMEs face significant challenges as global competition intensifies, but startups targeting cross-border opportunities, especially in Southeast Asia, show promise.

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Valerie founded Ansible Ventures, a seed fund dedicated to Vietnam in 2022. Previously, she served as Vietnam Country Head for Venturra Capital, where she led over a dozen investments from 2020 to early 2022. From 2016 to 2019, she worked at Deloitte U.S. as a senior consultant where she advised hedge funds, private equity funds and other investment management clients. Valerie graduated magna cum laude in 2016 from Temple University’s Fox School of Business with a major in accounting and is a Certified Public Accountant licensed in Pennsylvania. She also founded Career Opportunities in Vietnam (COVN), providing advice to aspiring professionals and co-hosted Forward Vietnam Podcast.

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