Exploring Iran's evolving influence in the Middle East, with discussions on the upcoming presidential elections and potential succession of the Ayatollah. The podcast delves into protests in Iran, its foreign policy strategy in the Arab world, and failed attack on Israel. Insightful analysis on Iran's activities in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and the impact of targeted attacks on Iran's military high command.
Iran's new president may have limited influence on foreign policy due to the Supreme Leader's control.
Iran maintains regional influence through proxies like Hezbollah and Shia militias as a forward defense mechanism.
Deep dives
Iran's Presidential Election and Foreign Policy
Iran's recent presidential election, following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, is carried out under the watch of the Guardian Council, aligning with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's preferences. The new president's influence on Iranian foreign policy may be limited as the Supreme Leader holds the key decisions. Iran positions itself as an anti-imperialist stronghold, supporting entities like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi rebels. Despite changing leadership, Iran's core foreign policy ideologies persist, aiming to exert influence and portray strength in the Middle East.
Iran's Proxy Network and Forward Defense Strategy
Iran's extensive proxy network in the Middle East serves as a forward defense mechanism, indirectly countering adversaries like Israel and the US. By supporting groups like Hezbollah and creating Shia militias, Iran aims to deter direct conflicts and maintain regional influence. Iran equates influence with power, positioning itself as a significant player in the region's dynamics.
Challenges in Iran's Foreign Policy and Regional Influence
Iran's meddling in Arab countries faces resistance and skepticism, with many perceiving its influence negatively. Despite supporting groups like Hezbollah, sentiments against Iran's interventions persist. Iran's reliance on proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis showcases a strategic approach, balancing regional influence with domestic and ideological considerations.
Military Dynamics and Power Play in the Middle East
The escalation between Iran and Israel illustrates complex military dynamics. Iran's missile barrage, aimed at Israel, highlights challenges in overwhelming Israeli air defenses. Targeted attacks on Iranian military figures have tactical short-term impacts, but do little to alter long-term strategic power balances in the region.
Iran’s influence is growing across the Middle East, with its proxies now dangerously close to an all-out war with Israel. Could presidential elections or an eventual ayatollah succession lead to a change in course? Andrew Mueller speaks to Iranian-American journalist Farnaz Fassihi of ‘The New York Times’, Iraqi analyst Renad Mansour and defence expert Jean-Loup Samaan.